DEFINITIONS

Age the age of the person concerned in full years at the time of the event, i.e. the age at last birthday.

Life expectancy the average remaining lifetime in years for persons who attain a given age if mortality remains unchanged. At the age of 0 the life expectancy at birth.

Net migration the difference between immigration and emigration. Positive net migration shows excess of immigration, the negative one shows the excess of emigration over immigration.

Total fertility rate (TFR) the average number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she passed through all her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year. The TFR is calculated based on the birth rates by age of mother.

METHODOLOGY

The software package Spectrum was used in making the projection.

The 2009 birth and death rates and the age distribution as of the beginning of 2010 were used for making the population projection. The population in 2010 is based on the 2000 Population and Housing Census data and is complemented with the annual data on registered births, deaths and migration.

The 2000 Population Census covered:

- persons who were in the Republic of Estonia at the moment of the Census, except for diplomatic staff of foreign diplomatic missions and consular posts and their family members and persons in active service in a foreign army;

- persons, who resided in the Republic of Estonia but who were in a foreign state temporarily (for a term of up to one year at most);

- diplomatic staff of diplomatic missions and consular posts of the Republic of Estonia and their family members, who were in a foreign state at the moment of the Census.

Persons whose permanent place of residence was in Estonia were counted as the resident population of Estonia irrespective of whether they stayed at the moment of Census in their permanent residence or not.

Increase in the life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate are based on Eurostat indicators for Estonia and Swedish indicators. It is assumed that migration in Tallinn stays negative for the whole period, mainly because of continuing urban sprawl.

Projection is composed on the presumption that the situation in Estonia and in the world will remain relatively stable.

Assumptions

- Total fertility rate in Tallinn has been on average 1.58 over the last years. We assume that it will increase slightly but continuously over the period and grow to 1.65 children per woman by 2050;

- Life expectancy at birth is 79.9 for women and 70.2 for men in 2009. By 2050 life expectancy at birth will have grown to 86.7 years for women and 80.8 years for men;

- Net migration is negative during the whole period constituting 500 persons per year.

CONTACT PERSON

Alis Tammur

Population and Social Statistics Department

Tel +372 625 8481

alis.tammur@stat.ee

Updated: 16.04.2014